Social Security cost-of-living adjustment could be 10.5% in 2023, according to new estimate

Social Security beneficiaries will be in line to receive a record high cost-of-living adjustment in 2023 due to inflation. The question is exactly how high it may be.

Based on new consumer price index data for June released Wednesday, The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, now estimates the cost-of-living adjustment will be 10.5% for 2023.

A 10.5% COLA would amount to a $175.10 increase to the average monthly retirement benefit of $1,668, according to The Senior Citizens League.

In comparison, the group’s estimates from the past two months indicated the COLA for next year might be 8.6%.

That’s as the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, climbed 9.1% in June over the previous 12 months, the fastest pace since 1981.

Meanwhile, the measurement used by the Social Security Administration to calculate the COLA each year — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — shot up 9.8% over the last 12 months.

The actual increase for next year may vary depending on how high inflation is in the coming months.